Abstract

The endangered Odontaspis ferox remains a poorly understood large predatory shark, with limited knowledge of its ecological niche and vulnerability to climate change. This study aimed to assess its current and future habitat suitability across the Mediterranean Sea and global oceans using a species distribution modeling framework. A total of 303 occurrence records were compiled from multiple biodiversity databases and literature sources, and 12 environmental predictors were selected following multicollinearity filtering. Among the tested algorithms, the Random Forest model demonstrated high predictive performance, indicating strong accuracy and reliability. Current projections reveal a highly fragmented distribution, with suitability hotspots concentrated in the eastern and central Mediterranean, particularly in the Aegean Sea, Hellenic Trench, and Ionian Sea, as well as in specific coastal regions globally. Future projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (2020–2100) indicate a clear spatial reorganization. Core habitats in the southeastern Mediterranean are projected to persist, while substantial expansion into the northern and central Mediterranean suggests a poleward shift in habitat suitability. In contrast, global projections indicate an overall contraction of suitable habitats. Temperature and primary productivity emerged as the main drivers of distribution patterns. Overall, the results suggest that the Mediterranean Sea may act as a critical climate refuge for O. ferox, highlighting its increasing conservation importance under future ocean warming.

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